The road to autonomy

For our safety, the North American auto industry has taken its first big step toward a future when all cars will drive themselves. Regulators, the insurance industry, and automakers say that by 2022, all cars, trucks, and sport utility vehicles will feature automatic braking (page 14).

For regulators, technology that slows or stops cars when drivers fail to react to obstacles is a no-brainer. The systems have been better than expected in preventing accidents and injuries, based on test data submitted by Volvo and other producers. In addition, the costs of implementing automatic braking have fallen steadily and are on track to become even less expensive.

Automatic braking really only requires two major elements – sensing obstacles (cars, trees, guardrails, buildings) and the ability to apply the brakes. Radar, laser, and sonic sensors have become very inexpensive throughout the past five years. In addition, strict fuel-economy standards already have many automakers replacing heavy hydraulic braking systems with lighter electric ones – systems that can be computer controlled.

Sophisticated algorithms will use different tactics to decide how aggressively to respond to traffic obstacles, so there will be a lot spent on software, but the componentry side was already moving toward self-braking vehicles. It’s why the idea moved from regulators suggesting that this might be a good idea in 2015 to a de facto industry standard less than a year later.

Now that the industry has started down this road, fully autonomous vehicles seem inevitable. The same safety and technological trends that are enabling self-braking should apply to autonomous steering and acceleration.

Data show that people get distracted and fail to brake, so by 2022, cars will do that for us automatically. Rising accident rates and death tolls also show that drivers are getting more distracted – so they fail to steer away from hazards or choose inappropriate highway speeds.

On the technology side, lightweighting has increased the prevalence of electronic throttle and steering systems. Add computer controls to those electric systems, and the ability to control the basic operational functions of a vehicle are already in place. All that’s left is the clever programming of on-board computers.

Surveys show that drivers are wary of autonomous technology. AAA released survey results earlier this year that found 75% of drivers were afraid to ride in a self-driving car. But the seeds of acceptance were there as well – for drivers with cars that already have some autonomous functions, 75% trust the technology.

John Nielsen, AAA’s managing director of automotive engineering and repair, says, “What Americans may not realize is that the building blocks towards self-driving cars are already in today’s vehicles, and the technology is constantly improving and well-trusted by those who have experienced it.”

By 2022, all new cars will have a gateway feature introducing drivers to autonomous operation. It’s a first step toward making drivers comfortable with a future in which cars will drive themselves – for our safety.